Save space and trees with an e-reader instead
Sometimes it strikes me how totally different views people have about the ongoing digital revolution and how fast and fundamentally it will change our media consumption.
Today I really had one of those moments reading first a post in Galleycat with some very strange predictions by Richard Curtis´ on book publishing 10 years in the future contrasted by an, in my view, a lot more enlightened piece by Chris Dixon building on Clayton M. Christensen´s theories on disruptive technologies.
As pointed out by Chris, disruptive technologies tend to be dismissed as toys at first and the potential of the new technology to fundamentally provide change is not comprehended. This is exactly what is happening in the media industry right now.
To me working with digital media for a traditional magazine publisher, there is no doubt magazines will be consumed digitally in the future. It´s not a question of “if“, it´s a matter of “when“. It´s definitely not going to take 50 years, 8-10 years for books and 10 to 15 years for glossy magazines is a reasonable guess for me and Steve Ballmer is even more optimistic. By then all the laggards in the technology adoption lifecycle will have no choice anymore. There will basically be no commercially available new books or magazines left, only for collectors in marginal circulation for very high prices. The printed media business as we know it today, by then has transformed completely in the same way as for example the music industry has gone from physical LPs, to CDs to be completely digitally distributed.
As the book industry is even less dependent on high resolution images versus glossy magazines and this revolution is already well underway for book reading, Curtis´ viewpoints surprises me even more. It´s happening now, right in front of us! Although I personally still don´t find Amazon´s Kindle replacing a physical book, many people apparently think it does.
Within a year or two, these tablets will be in color, bendable and be a lot thinner and lighter. The development of the screens and screen technology is at the heart of this change and what makes this so interesting, is not whether the gadget is called tablet, e-reader, laptop or smartphone, but how consumer behaviour is changing. Consumer behavior is changing right now for books and within a few years, the same will definitely happen for magazines.
With the above background, it really surprises me to read the predictions from Curtis:
1. First and foremost I predict that the size and price of Espresso print on demand will come down to the point where POD kiosks will be installed in non-bookstores like supermarkets, libraries, pharmacies and the like.
Once again, let me point out that he predicts what will happen with the book market 10 years from now… Consumers wanting to print books in shops?? Why on earth do that 10 years from now when you can download books already today to e-readers or other digital devices many consumers already find good enough to read on? In just the coming 1- 2 years, we will have e-readers in color on the market. Possibly bendable. The prototypes are already here. Curtis continues with something even more crazy:
5. Sales volume of printed books will rise as a reaction to screen-reading sets in. Many now enamored of e-books will return to print.
This prediction is totally stunning. Again, physical, printed books is the prediction from Curtis. 10 years from now and motivated as a “reaction” to screen-reading. Even if that nostagia would indeed set in among some consumers in 10 years, how many traditional book stores offering printed books will still be in business? Even if I for some strange reason would like to get across new music on audio cassettes today, where would I be able to find it? How much would it cost?
This digital revolution will transform the media landscape completely and many of the old traditional publishers will not even understand what happened until it´s too late.
(picture by Julie70)
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{ 5 comments… read them below or add one }
“As pointed out by Chris, disruptive technologies tend to be dismissed as toys at first and the potential of the new technology to fundamentally provide change is not comprehended. This is exactly what is happening in the media industry right now.”
Absolutely spot-on. And it’s not only technology. New mediums themselves are always dismissed as merely low-brow or childish entertainment. The novel and film are two notable examples which didn’t get accepted as ‘serious’ art for many decades. Video games are still undergoing that shift now, whereas the blog managed to ‘arrive’ much more quickly.
I add the above into the argument because it seems to me that much of the anti-eBook bias today stems from a sort of analogous perception, of printed text as being somehow more worthy, more serious than digital content. The stigma of self-publishing as a vanity enterprise, for instance, is pegged to this notion. However, I’m sure that self-publishing is one of the still-hidden factors which will propel the use of eBook technologies, much like blogging pushes Internet-based reading up and up. Exciting times for book lovers, to be sure.
The “digital revolution” is already happening — Amazon sold more digital books than paper ones this Christmas.
The future’s bright. It’s a screen, to be precise.
@Alex Denning,
Indeed a milestone and a very concrete indicator this is happening very fast right now. Another one is the Skiff tablet announced this week with the new metal foil screen tech:
http://besttabletreview.com/the-skiff-reader-looks-to-be-the-largest-bendiest-ereader-out-there/
Check out the photos of it…
http://www.skiff.com/skiff-reader_photos.html
Especially this one…
http://www.skiff.com/images/reader_photos/shot05_enlg.jpg
“Moore´s law” anyone?
@Marcos Benevides,
Great point. Managing a digital division as part of a traditional publisher I can assure you I have experienced the opinion of “printed text being somehow more worthy, more serious than digital content” viewpoint quite hands-on… I think 2010 will be a break-through year for digital media. All the pieces are coming together now and books/newspapers will be the first to experiences. Magazines next…
(Great discussion in the comments over at Galleycat btw!)
Cheers, it was a fun thread. Spent waaay too much time on the commentary, but met some cool people, you included!
However, I have to admit I’m involved in publishing only as a writer of EFL/ESL textbooks; my primary occupation is actually teaching. My first title is on a traditional print model with Pearson. Although their Ed division is doing some really innovative stuff, it’s been a bit tough getting them to think outside the box–well, in terms of doing things like offering our own title as an eBook, in any case.
However, my next book–coming out in a couple of weeks, actually–will be on a much more ambitious eBook AND print model, and on a Creative Commons license to boot. Got a smaller publisher to run with that, so hopefully we’ll be able to shake up the industry a bit with it (well, the English teaching textbook industry, anyway).